The whole regular season has led to this. #10 K-State (7-2, 9-3) is set to take on #3 TCU (9-0, 12-0) this Saturday at 11 a.m. in the Big 12 Championship in Arlington, TX.

For the Cats, their nine wins is the most in a regular season since 2014. A win would secure the team’s 11th 10-win season in school history, their first since 2012 and their ninth since the start of the Big 12 in 1996.

The Wildcats’ offense has really ramped things up in the second half of the season. In the last five games, K-State averaged 40.2 points per game which is first in the Big 12 and fifth among all Power 5 schools.

As for the defense, they have done a fantastic job of clamping down at the end of games. Since the TCU game during the regular season, they have allowed a total of 15 points in the second halves with two shutouts. This season, they are allowing 19.4 points per game, which is the best in the Big 12, and only 7.8 points in second halves.

Like most games, getting out to a quick start will be one of the major keys for K-State. They are 8-0 when scoring first. They are also 9-1 when leading after the first quarter with the only loss being the first meeting against TCU. Their point margin in first halves this season is +122 which is the second-best in the Big 12.

Their magic number is 30 points. The Wildcats are 8-0 when they hit that magic number. Establishing and maintaining a solid ground attack is also crucial. K-State is 7-0 when they have a 100-yard rusher.

As painful as it was, looking back at the first meeting will give the Cats a good idea what to expect this weekend. K-State had a 28-10 lead midway through the second quarter. However, the Horned Frogs did a two-for-one by scoring right before the half and then scoring again right out of the break en route to their 28-0 shutout of the final 30:20 to win the game 38-28.

Junior quarterback Will Howard came into the game out of necessity with fifth-year senior quarterback Adrian Martinez leaving the game due to injury. Howard was knocked out of the game as well and redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Rubley played a few snaps as a result.

K-State was also without senior linebacker Daniel Green for the entire second half, which was a massive blow. Green is a vocal leader and one of their best playmakers. He has been back since and the defense has stepped up as a result.

Head coach Chris Klieman said in his midweek press conference that Howard will be getting the start, but Martinez might be healthy enough to play as well, if needed. The offense has played with more confidence and has a bigger upside with the junior on the field and having a whole week to prepare for the Horned Frogs will yield great results for the Cats.

TCU makes its first appearance in the Big 12 title game since 2017, which was the first time the game had been played since 2009. That year, they lost to Oklahoma 41-17 with now head coach Sonny Dykes on that coaching staff as an offensive analyst.

Dykes is the first coach since 1996 to go 12-0 in his first season. He is also the first TCU coach and Big 12 coach to ever accomplish this feat.

Their 12-0 record is the third time in history they have achieved that record and the first time since 2010. They are also the first Big 12 team to go 12-0 since Texas did it in 2009. Their perfect 9-0 conference record is the first time that has been done since OU did it in 2016.

A sign of a well-coached team is a team that can win close games. This season, the Horned Frogs had a stretch of seven consecutive games where they won by ten points or less. That’s the first time anyone has done that since 1975.

This TCU team is battle-tested with five ranked wins which is tied for the most in the country. The Horned Frogs also have the toughest strength of schedule in the nation.

One thing that has helped TCU lately is not having to travel very much. TCU has not had to leave the state of Texas throughout all five of their games in November and December.

TCU will hope that junior wide receiver Quentin Johnston will be healthy enough to go on Saturday. Johnston left the game at Baylor two weeks ago and wasn’t healthy enough to play this past weekend against Iowa State. Fortunately, they didn’t really need them as the Horned Frogs dominated the Cyclones 62-14.

Johnston has battled many injuries throughout his career. He played just 8 eight games in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons and this year he has played in a career-high 11 games. The junior got off to a rough start but started to heat up in the middle of the season with a 206-yard effort against Kansas and a 180-yard game vs. Oklahoma State.

In the first meeting between K-State and TCU, Johnston had the go-ahead 55-yard touchdown with 3:45 left in the third quarter to go up 31-28. He finished with 74 receiving yards on four catches with the score.

The player that had killed the Wildcats the most, arguably, was junior running back Kendre Miller. He had 153 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including the final score of the game with 12:14 in the fourth quarter.

Heisman-hopeful quarterback Max Duggan was 17-for-26 with 280 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

Having a fully healthy defensive front will help K-State against TCU’s run game which wasn’t fully healthy last time around. If the safeties can step up again this week and not allow too many deep passes, the Cats can pull off the upset.

Prediction: It’s really starting to feel like the 2003 season all over again. They both lost at home to a green Group of 5 school with this year being Tulane and 2003 being against Marshall. Both teams lost to Texas. They both had three losses entering the championship game. Both teams faced an undefeated team destined to play for a national title with Heisman-caliber quarterbacks. To predict anything else besides the exact same score would be a missed opportunity.

K-State 35, TCU 7