K-State will have another tough road test against a Texas Tech team that is starting to hit their stride at the right time. As for the Wildcats, they are hoping to bounce back after a poor effort on the road after a bye in a 29-21 loss at Oklahoma State last Friday.

The Red Raiders enter Saturday’s contest with an overall record of 3-3, but their Big 12 record is 2-1. There was a lot of panic in Lubbock after the team started 1-3 with losses to West Virginia on the road, Oregon at home and at Wyoming in Week 1.

In retrospect, Wyoming is sitting at 5-1 with their lone loss coming against #9 Texas, Oregon is ranked eighth in the country and will be in the thick of the Pac-12 title race and West Virginia is a lot better than expected with the Mountaineers just outside the top 25.

Tech was able to put together back-to-back impressive blowout conference wins with a 49-28 win at home over Houston and a 39-14 win at Baylor last weekend.

Coming into the season, expectations were high for Texas Tech with some even claiming that the Red Raiders aren’t just a contender for the conference title, but they could be a dark horse College Football Playoff contender, hoping to replicate what TCU did last year.

That quickly evaporated after their season opening loss at Wyoming, but they definitely have a shot at making the Big 12 Championship game. Especially with how well they are playing right now.

Senior quarter Tyler Shough is injured once again and will miss the game due to a fractured fibula he suffered in their loss at WVU. Shough has failed to play in eight games in a single season in his five years he’s played in college. It’s been reported that he will miss a minimum of four more games. There is also a  chance that he could be done for the season.

In his place is sophomore Behren Morton. He has been solid in Shough’s absence with a 68.8% completion percentage, 341 yards, five touchdowns and one interception in his last two games with a passer rating of 158.4.

The level of competition will be more difficult for Morton, though, with those last two opponents being Houston and Baylor. He struggled mightily against West Viriginia going 13-for-37 for 158 yards with one touchdown. Morton had a chance to tie the game with four shots to the endzone down by seven inside the final minute, and on 3rd & 10, he missed a wide-open man in the endzone with a high throw.

Texas Tech’s running game is led by senior running back Tahj Brooks, who has been a reliable back for the Red Raiders since his true freshman season in 2020. He has over 2,200 rushing yards in his illustrious career, and this year has been a career year.

Brooks already has 688 yards with four consecutive games with 100+ rushing yards. He is already just three yards shy of passing his career-high in rushing yards in a season. Last week, Brooks ran for a career-high 170 yards. Brooks is third in rushing in the Big 12 half-way through the season.

In the past, he had been playing second fiddle to SaRodorick Thompson, but this year, he has been the bellcow back with close to 100 more carries than the second-most on the team among backs.

Expect him to get a lot of touches with Brooks being one carry shy against Tarleton State to having four straight games with 20+ carries. He has been very efficient when he touches the ball with 5.3 yards per carry.

The Red Raiders like to spread out their targets in the passing game with no receiver with 30 receptions or 300 yards.

Senior Myles Price leads the team with four touchdowns. He’s only 5-foot-10, but he is a solid route-runner, who is dangerous in open space.

Sophomore Jerand Bradley is their main redzone target at 6-foot-5. He has three touchdowns this season and was named to the All-Big 12 Preseason team.

Texas Tech’s defense gives up a lot in the passing game with three opponents able to throw for more than 300 passing yards including the last two. They give up an average of 243.8 passing yards per game.

One bright spot in their secondary is super senior defensive back Malik Dunlap. He has three interceptions with two of them including a pick-six against Tarleton State. Those three picks rank him tied for second in the conference.

Their run defense has been solid, though, with opponents averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Last week, they gave up just 17 yards on 30 attempts to Baylor.

Up front, they will have to deal with defensive tackle Jaylon Hutchings, who was an All-Big 12 Preseason selection. He is a big reason for this run defense’s success. Hutchings also has 2.5 sacks and two quarterback hurries and 6.5 tackles for loss.

Their leading tacklers are linebackers Ben Roberts (45) and Jesiah Pierre (43). Roberts is sixth in the conference in tackles with Pierre just one spot behind him. On a tackles per game basis, Pierre ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 8.6 per game.

Prediction

I gave the Cats way too much credit last week, apparently.

Will Howard is coming off his worst game since his freshman season. That’s not me just making a statement, he said that himself on Tuesday. Everyone in the locker room still has confidence in the senior, however, despite some fans quickly turning against the Big 12 Championship-winning quarterback.

This game will all depend on his arm once again. We will find out how mentally tough he is after an inexcusable three-interception performance.

Vegas seems to still have some faith in the Cats. They are only 1.5-point underdogs. I think this will be a close one with K-State just barely finding themselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard once again. I believe that the Wildcats will lose to Texas Tech for the first time since 2015 and just the second time since 2009.

The over/under is set at 56.5 which I believe to be a touch too high. I will go with the under.

Texas Tech 26, K-State 24

My head-to-head picks: 3-2

My picks ATS: 3-2