K-State (3-1, 1-0) and Oklahoma State (2-2, 0-1) will clash in Stillwater for a Big 12 showdown under Friday night lights. It’s the first time Oklahoma State has hosted a Friday night game since 1956.

The Wildcats haven’t had a whole lot of success in Stillwater in recent years with their lone with this millennium coming in 2017 with Byron Pringle getting four touchdowns over a top-ten Cowboy team.

Last year’s game was the largest margin of victory for either team as K-State defeated the Cowboys 48-0. The Pokes were ranked ninth coming off a monster win at home against Texas, and the Wildcats came off a loss at TCU.

It was Will Howard’s first start of the 2022 season, and he and offensive coordinator Collin Klein put doubters to rest with the Pennsylvanian gunslinger threw for 296 yards and four touchdowns.

Both teams enter this game as completely different teams for better or worse.

Oklahoma State has had issues with their quarterback play with three different players all getting some playing time so far. This has led them to averaging just 22 points per game, which is 13th in the Big 12 and 11th-worst among all Power 5 teams.

Redshirt senior Alan Bowman, though, has been named the starter for this week’s game. He has the most experience of the three, but he also has the lowest passer rating (96.7), the most interceptions (3) and the lowest completion percentage (53%).

He had his best showing in their last game at Iowa State, but that’s not saying much. Bowman had 278 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions but only completed 47.9% of his pass attempts.

Bowman was somehow worse in their game against South Alabama in which they were dominated 33-7. The Texas Tech transfer was benched midway through the second quarter for Gunnar Gundy. The Jaguars are no slouch, though, coming off a ten-win season and picked to finish second in the Sun Belt West division.

One of the reasons the offense hasn’t been as prolific this year is the lack of usage from their Preseason All-Big 12 wide receiver Brennan Presley.

After getting 813 yards and 5.2 receptions per game in 2022, he has been held to just 15 receptions (3.75 per game) for 98 yards, although, he has matched his touchdown total from last year with two. He’s the only Oklahoma State wideout with multiple scores. Presley is most known for when he had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in their Bedlam win in 2021.

Their leading receiver is redshirt sophomore Jaden Bray, who has 18 receptions and 215 yards but no touchdowns. He is averaging 53.8 yards per game.

Junior Hawaii native De’Zhaun Stribling is just behind him at 14 catches for 198 yards with one touchdown. They are the only two Pokes wide receivers that are averaging more than 30 receiving yards per game.

The Cowboys don’t have a standout back either. Sophomore Ollie Gordon II is their leading rusher with 230 yards at 57.5 per game with two touchdowns. He does make the most when he touches the ball, though, averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

Redshirt senior Elijah Collins and redshirt sophomore Jaden Nixon both have barely exceeded the century mark this year. Nixon did have a 60-yard touchdown reception against Iowa State with a dime from Bowman, hitting him down the sideline in stride.

Their offensive line has dealt with some injuries and some performance struggles this year. Like K-State, their unit has a lot of experience and depth, but they’ve just been underperforming with run blocking being their biggest flaw.

The Cowboys have also struggled on third downs converting on just 36.5% which is 95th out of 130 FBS teams.

Oklahoma State has been good whenever they get close. In fact, they are perfect 11-for-11 scoring in the redzone. Out of those trips, nine of those 11 resulted in touchdowns with two field goals.

Their defense has been middle of the road at best. Oklahoma State’s run defense has categorically been slightly better than their pass defense.

They are giving up just 3.8 yards per carry and 137.5 yards per game on the ground. Their pass defense is giving up 233.8 yards per game and 12.1 yards per completion.

One of their best defenders is junior linebacker Collin Oliver, who was on the Preseason All-Big 12 team. He has lived up to those expectations with five tackles for loss, which leads the team and is in the top ten in the conference. Oliver is also third on the team in total tackles with 25.

Their leading tackler is redshirt sophomore safety Kendal Daniels, who was also on the Preseason All-Big 12 team. He has 31 total tackles with 1.5 tackles for loss and a sack.

One thing this Oklahoma State defense has really lacked is forcing turnovers. They are 127th in the FBS in turnovers forced with just two so far. This works out well for K-State because they are tied for the 18th-fewest turnovers lost with four. Howard has thrown an interception in every game so far and will try to snap that streak against a defense that only has one pick this year.

K-State has been dealing with a lot of injuries this season. Before the season started, the bye being this earlier looked like a negative thing, but now with all the nicks and bruises throughout the team, you could argue it’s perfect timing for the Wildcats.

Head coach Chris Klieman said that he believes that both RJ Garcia and Treshaun Ward will be ready to go. Klein said that Keagan Johnson is the healthiest he has been since he stepped foot in the Little Apple. Christian Duffie has been getting healthier as well after playing his first game with limited work versus UCF.

Prediction

In theory, this should be a game where K-State’s offense has a good day. Guys are getting healthy for the Cats, which is good, but things never go the way they should whenever K-State plays in Stillwater.

The last time Howard played a game at OSU, he struggled mightily. He went just 4-for-12 with 50 yards and was benched for Jaren Lewis half-way through the second quarter.

However, that was Courtney Messingham’s Will Howard and not Collin Klein’s Will Howard. We’ve seen what this version of Howard can do to Oklahoma State. I do think that he will be quite as productive as he was against the Pokes last year, because for whatever reason, he was just a better player in 2022.

With Ward coming back, it’s possible that DJ Giddens is quite able to find a rhythm like he did against UCF when he ran for over 200 yards and four touchdowns.

K-State is favored by 12 points which seems crazy to me. Not in a sense that it’s a bad line, but just the fact that K-State is favored at Oklahoma State by 12 points. It’s just hard to believe.

I am going to pick the Cats to win, and I will hesitantly pick them to barely cover.

As for the O/U, it currently sits at 53.5 which I think is a little low. I am taking the over here.

K-State 37, Oklahoma State 24

My head-to-head picks: 3-1

My picks against the spread: 3-1